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  • 1.  Pop estimates, first year of each decade not quite right

    Posted 01-01-2023 08:54 AM

    Hi all

    I hope everyone is healthy!

    Question. I was looking at the 2020 and 2022 vintage population estimates

    Annual Population Estimates, Estimated Components of Resident Population Change, and Rates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2020 (NST-EST2020-alldata)
    www.census.gov/.../2010s-state-total.html
    and
    Annual Population Estimates, Estimated Components of Resident Population Change, and Rates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2022 (NST-EST2022-ALLDATA)
    www.census.gov/.../2020s-state-total.html

    And I noticed that the first year of each time period (2010-2020, and 2020-2022) seemed very different from the remaining years of the time period. Any help with why this is?

    Not sure if this will come out in an email, but here are tables

    Vintage 2020

    births deaths International Migration Domestic Migration
    2010 61,404 35,115 19,025 -22,653
    2011 243,117 149,781 87,332 -80,685
    2012 239,907 146,887 90,304 -108,325
    2013 239,882 152,565 78,010 -112,510
    2014 237,033 148,863 84,452 -145,557
    2015 239,348 153,901 84,301 -166,054
    2016 235,792 151,604 88,805 -194,135
    2017 231,207 155,117 69,336 -188,058
    2018 229,316 156,755 57,774 -180,043
    2019 223,378 162,158 41,869 -183,857
    2020 220,375 177,602 35,181 -203,893

    Vintage 2022

    births deaths International Migration Domestic Migration
    2020 53,083 72,523 1,343 -69,544
    2021 205,802 177,143 28,770 -295,820
    2022 212,145 176,534 77,923 -299,557

    Thanks



  • 2.  RE: Pop estimates, first year of each decade not quite right

    Posted 01-01-2023 08:59 AM

    Hi Gene: looks like you might be seeing just the difference between, say, Census 2010 (April 2010) and the 2010 estimate (July 2010) They include that number which can be confusing —



  • 3.  RE: Pop estimates, first year of each decade not quite right

    Posted 01-01-2023 09:03 AM

    That seems possible, but very odd. Except the vintage 2022 international migration for 2020 and 2021, unless the numbers really did drop that much, which I suppose might also be possible, because of COVID. But thanks.



  • 4.  RE: Pop estimates, first year of each decade not quite right

    Posted 01-01-2023 09:31 AM

    It's how they've always done it (last two cycles, anyway). There is a base count as of Census Day (April 1), then estimates as of July 1 of every year. So in the first year, the estimate period is only 3 months.

    If you want an estimate of births, deaths, etc. for e.g. 2019-2020, just use the last estimate from the previous cycle.

    So for 2020, use the last row from the 2010 estimates cycle.



  • 5.  RE: Pop estimates, first year of each decade not quite right

    Posted 01-01-2023 09:34 AM

    COVID could certainly account for the change in international migration 2020-2021, as many countries closed or restricted borders.



  • 6.  RE: Pop estimates, first year of each decade not quite right

    Posted 01-01-2023 10:30 AM

    Look at your layout to be sure. This one for 2022 shows, for instance, BIRTHS2020 as “Births in period 4/1/2020 to 6/30/2020“ — the rest are annual

    www2.census.gov/.../NST-EST2022-ALLDATA.pdf



  • 7.  RE: Pop estimates, first year of each decade not quite right

    Posted 01-01-2023 10:34 AM

    Tim, Glenn, thanks. That explains it.