The Massive Data Institute has published this incredibly helpful "dissection" of this report. They lay out the checklist the Census Bureau uses before linking data, and this violates 6 of the checks that would have stopped this report from being undertaken were professionals at the Bureau the ones working on it.
One of the most interesting factors they discuss (on page 6):
"The number of alleged noncitizen voters found is indistinguishable from 0.
"The number of matches found in "Beginning Analysis" report (just 24,000) is well below what we would expect based on false positive error rates.
"As noted above, prior Census Bureau research into incorrect match rates demonstrates that false-positive linkages can exceed 6%. Rates above 1% are not uncommon. This means that the 24,000 is well under what we would typically expect to see based on linkage error, suggesting exactly the opposite of the headline: noncitizen voting simply has not, and cannot, be proven based on this analysis." (emphasis mine)
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Sarah Eisele-Dyrli
Assistant Director
CTData Collaborative
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Original Message:
Sent: 08-20-2026 02:12 PM
From: John Haaga
Subject: New Census Bureau noncitizen voting brief
The state-level numbers of noncitizen voters look suspiciously round...e.g, 500 for Maryland. Could it be 499 or 501? These are obviously rough estimates but the text (and I'm sure most news articles about the report) make them seem like counts.
I'm not sure I understand the method well enough -- do the "noncitizen voters" include people for whom they couldn't find a matching administrative files? Might there be a lot of married women listed under maiden names, and Hispanics listed under maternal instead of paternal names, and Van Dykes listed as Dykes, And asians listed as Abe Shinzo instead of Shinzo Abe, and all the usual problems when you try to match multiple files?
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John Haaga
Maryland Commission on Aging
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Original Message:
Sent: 08-20-2026 10:02 AM
From: Cliff Cook
Subject: New Census Bureau noncitizen voting brief
Now that this report has been released at the national level we should be alert for similar instances being requested at the state level. Whether this is possible to produce is unclear to me but perhaps with access to an RDC it might be.
In the early 2000s the police commissioner in my city asked for a report about people of Arabs and other middle eastern descent, so local leaders and officials can and do take cues from federal actions such as this one.
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Cliff Cook
Urban Planner and Local Demographer (retired)
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Original Message:
Sent: 08-19-2026 02:33 PM
From: Mike Cline
Subject: New Census Bureau noncitizen voting brief
I agree with all of your concerns and is what I immediately thought about when I saw the post and review the "research." I immediately wondered what would be next after they made a point about using CB for crime analysis. Thank you for the additional historical context.
The post was shared on the WH Facebook page. So, it has had more widespread distribution than just Truth Social.
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Mike Cline
State Demographer
NC Office of State Budget and Management
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