I recently published a paper on SSRN that may be of interest to this group as a use case for Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics data.
The paper uses BDS 2013–2023 exit rate data for mature firms - stratified by sector, employment size band, and firm age category - to compute forward survival probabilities for going-concern businesses. The application is business appraisal: I use the survival curves to replace an empirically ungrounded perpetuity assumption in the standard terminal value formula with one derived from observed firm mortality data.
The BDS mature-firm age categories (6–10, 11–15, 16–20, 21–25, 26+) turned out to be exactly the right population for this purpose - survivor-filtered firms whose forward mortality experience is what appraisers actually need.
The paper is freely available on SSRN:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6754041
Happy to discuss the methodology or the BDS data structure with anyone interested.
Michael Sack Elmaleh, CPA, CVA