Tomorrow is April 1 which means we're just four years out from the 2030 Census count! Here's a quick update on where things stand.
The Operational Plan
The Census Bureau released 'Baseline 1' of its 2030 Census Operational Plan in July 2025. Key features include expanded use of administrative records, a streamlined nonresponse followup operation, near real-time response processing, and revised race/ethnicity questions. Baseline 2 is due summer 2027.
The 2026 Census Test
The test launches May 1 in two sites: Huntsville, AL and Spartanburg, SC and covers about 155,000 households. The Census Bureau's March 23 update clarifies that the USPS pilot will differ by site: in Huntsville, postal workers will be hired directly as Census Bureau employees (working outside their regular postal hours); in Spartanburg, postal workers will collect responses as USPS employees integrated into their mail delivery routes.
The test uses the ACS questionnaire (not the decennial census form), offers an online response option (English only), and runs through August 31.
Other Issues to Watch:
- Staffing vacancies at the Bureau, including among 2030 Census planning teams.
- Declining survey response rates and broader trust concerns.
- Administrative records coverage gaps by race/ethnicity, particularly for children and immigrant populations.
- Updated race and ethnicity question aligned with revised OMB standards, including a new Middle Eastern or North African category.
- Disclosure avoidance for 2030 is still being determined following lessons from 2020's differential privacy implementation.
- The future of the LUCA program and whether local governments will have sufficient opportunity and capacity to influence address coverage.
- Legislative proposals to add a citizenship question to the census, and their potential effects on participation in immigrant communities.
What are you watching most closely for 2030?
Learn More:
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Mark Mather
Associate VP
PRB
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